Ratings shift shuffles the upfront landscape

As the annual ad space mating ritual in the world's most crowded and influential kids TV market draws nearer, this year's U.S. kids upfront is falling into step with the events of the last two years. Media buyers and network execs forecast the upfront will likely break next month. Ad spending is expected to be in line with the past couple of years, and buyers are saying it's poised to be another buyer's market. Still, an eye-popping 200% ratings increase at Kids' WB! (kids ages two to 11, Monday to Friday daytime) has shaken up the playing field, and the Internet is changing the landscape as it gains more attention from networks as a way to enhance kid media offerings.

As they prepare to enter negotiations with networks, buyers are evaluating kidcasters' performance over the last year. "The only thing that's really hot right now, if you want to call it hot, is Kids' WB!, and that's because of Pokémon," says Gary Carr, senior VP and group director of national broadcast at Western Initiative Media. "Cartoon Network is growing again, but its growth rate has slowed a bit," and Nick is "still pretty well entrenched." TN Media's senior VP/director national broadcast, Larry Blasius, says Fox Kids is "still delivering decent numbers, but not necessarily in the same measures it has in past years, ABC as well." Fox Family Channel is "in many ways still a question mark," and syndication "has been falling by the wayside."

Of all the gains and losses over the last year, Kids' WB!'s swift upsurge is the most dramatic. The network saw a 2.5 increase in Saturday morning Neilsen ratings and a 1.6 jump in weekday daytime ratings among kids ages two to 11 in fourth quarter 1999 over the same period in 1998, unseating Nickelodeon, which was the leading kidcaster in Saturday morning and weekday ratings in Q4 1998. Pokémon led the charge, ranking first, second, fifth and sixth in individual kids program ratings among kids ages two to 11 for Q4 1999.

Jed Petrick, executive VP of media sales for The WB, is obviously pleased at the difference a year can make. The past year has "far and away" been Kids' WB!'s best yet in ratings growth, he says. He credits Pokémon, running 12 times a week, as well as Batman Beyond, but says "many kids found the network and our shows for the first time," drawing more viewers to other shows on its schedule as well. (Men in Black also placed in the top 10 individual kids program ratings for fourth quarter 1999). With the hiring of Donna Friedman to run Kids' WB! in January 1999, the appointment of Susanne Daniels to entertainment president of the parent network in December 1998, and the ensuing growth of Kids' WB!'s scheduling and programming team, "we've given it the kind of attention to detail that we were never able to give Kids' WB! before," Petrick says. The performance turnaround has led to "great demand all year long in the scatter market," he says, adding "we've never had scatter activity like this."

Petrick admits that Kids' WB! would be hard-pressed to repeat the past year's level of growth in the coming year, but says there is still room for ratings to rise. Next season will be the first full schedule developed by Friedman and her team. For next fall, Friedman says the network is sticking to its formula of "high action, high adventure, humor and heart." Following this month's debut of Max Steel, new series from producers including Nelvana, Sony Wonder and Sony Pictures Family Entertainment will roll out, with new and returning programs from Warner Bros. Television Animation remaining "a significant part" of the lineup. Friedman adds that Pokémon, with 52 new half hours in the wings, will continue to be "an important part of our schedule." In Japan, girls took longer to get into Pokémon, says Petrick, and if that holds true for the U.S., it could push the show's growing girl numbers higher, which he hopes would bring girls to other Kids' WB! programs too. "You'll probably find us to be a little more aggressive in the promotional area next year," says Petrick, resulting in bigger and more frequent tie-ins with large partners. (In the last year, Kids' WB! teamed up with such partners as Hasbro and Nintendo for the second-season launch of Pokémon, as well as Sony PlayStation for a holiday sweepstakes promotion.) Ratings could also grow as some of the network's young stations become more established.

When it comes to possible cost per thousand (CPM) fluctuations this year, "the real wild card is what Warner Bros. thinks it can get away with for Pokémon," says Matthew Maginley, VP/media director at TSR Advertising, echoing a question on many buyers' minds. Petrick, who will not discuss CPMs, says only: "I expect a substantial increase in demand for Kids' WB! commercial inventory."

Still climbing, Cartoon Network has seen ratings jump by 15% on Saturday mornings and 11% on weekdays among kids ages two to 11. "Last year was our best ever in ratings and delivery of our whole seven-year history," says Betty Cohen, president of Cartoon Network Worldwide. In part, this boost comes from expanding penetration to 61% of total U.S. TV households, up from 54% this time last year. But, says Cohen, the channel's ratings growth among kids ages six to 11, the demographic advertisers "are really interested in," has outpaced distribution gains.

"By summer of 1999, all the way through to the fourth quarter, we hit a critical mass of having enough of our new Cartoon Cartoon original product to really make a difference," says Cohen. The channel's original programs ranked as eight of its top 10 regularly scheduled telecasts among kids ages two to 11 and six to 11 in 1999, and Courage the Cowardly Dog, launched last November, marked Cartoon's highest-rated original show premiere. Cohen says anime block Toonami has been a "powerhouse," with ratings for kids ages six to 11 topping out at 2.7 in 1999 for U.S. households subscribing to Cartoon. She adds that consumer products, particularly Powerpuff Girls merch from Warner Bros. Consumer Products, started to really take off last year.